![]() This made the occurrence of the elevated pollution concentrations “a grand experiment” in the spirit of John Snow ( 5, 6), ripe for understanding the causal effect from exposure.Īlthough much research has examined the immediate effects of exposure to the Great Smog on outcomes, such as mortality and respiratory disease, very little, if any, has explored the long run effects from exposure. Part of what has made the study of this “killer fog” so convincing is that its timing and severity were unexpected, with the extent of damage not recognized until after the smog dissipated ( 4). During this incident, pollution concentrations exceeded current regulations and guidelines by a factor of 5–23 ( 3). ![]() 1 Original analyses and reanalyses have demonstrated that the air pollution concentrations that resulted from an unanticipated temperature inversion from December 5–9, 1952, had immediate, detrimental effects on population health ( 1– 3). The Great London Smog of 1952 changed the course of environmental science and policy. ![]() Evidence about the role of early-life exposure to air pollution as a root cause of asthma provides policy makers and physicians with new insights about how to prevent and potentially address the growing prevalence of the condition. Such events have an immediate impact on population health and an effect on health many years later. Extreme air pollution events remain a concern today, with such places as Beijing experiencing the highest recorded levels of air pollution as recently as November 2015. We find that children exposed to the intense air pollution within the first year of life were more likely to develop asthma during both childhood and adulthood. We also find suggestive evidence that early-life exposure led to a 9.53 percentage point increase (95% CI, −4.85 to 23.91) in the likelihood of adult asthma and exposure in utero led to a 7.91 percentage point increase (95% CI, −2.39 to 18.20) in the likelihood of childhood asthma.Ĭonclusions: These results are the first to link early-life pollution exposure to later development of asthma using a natural experiment, suggesting the legacy of the Great Smog is ongoing. Exposure to the Great Smog in the first year of life increases the likelihood of childhood asthma by 19.87 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.37–36.38). ![]() Measurements and Main Results: Prevalence of asthma during childhood (ages 0–15) and adulthood (ages >15) is analyzed for 2,916 respondents to the Life History portion of the English Longitudinal Study on Aging born from 1945 to 1955. Methods: This was a natural experiment using the unanticipated pollution event by comparing the prevalence of asthma between those exposed to the Great Smog in utero or the first year of life with those conceived well before or after the incident and those residing outside the affected area at the time of the smog. Objectives: To determine whether exposure to extreme air pollution in utero or soon after birth affects asthma development later in life. ![]() We use exposure to intense air pollution from the 1952 Great Smog of London as a natural experiment to examine both issues. Rationale: Little is known about the long-term effects of air pollution exposure and the root causes of asthma. ![]()
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